The May MGEX wheat pushed up toward $1.50 premium to CBOT today-- though it is still far short of the cash DTN index difference between Hard Red Spring and Soft Red Winter which has been over $2.70 for some time now. I added more to that position today.
The calendar spread on MGEX have been more challenging--which means I've been losing money. The history I've examined makes it seem unlikely that the May/July spread should go to a full carry contango while the cash DTN index for Hard Red Spring Wheat is at a premium to May futures, but that seems to be where we are headed. Still there are only a few cents of downside left and the upside looks substantial, so I'm keeping these spreads for a while.
Long oats and CBOT wheat vs short corn have been pared back a little, but these spreads continue to cause pain. Just have to be small enough to stay in the game, and big enough to make a difference...I'm not sure there's a balance there, but I'm still holding on.
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Tom,
ReplyDeleteI still check into this blog multiple times a week. Keep up the good work!
A couple quick questions for:
-Which broker do you use?
-What trading software package do you use?
Thanks,
Nick
For myself, I use Penson with CQG's CQG Spreader package. Customers have their own needs and I use the TT with Autospreader with whatever broker they pick. Unless you want to spend over $2,000/month, the CQG package is superior for execution and charting.
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