DISCLAIMER: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT I COULD BE WRONG.

Minneapolis Grain Exchange seats are cheap. Everyone should buy one...and then buy one for a friend.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

The World's Least Surprising Trade

With DTN cash index Spring Wheat at $2.38/bushel premium to Soft Winter Wheat, I just have to have the long July MGEX wheat/short CBOT at only $1.05. The new crop of Winter Wheat will be in, and the Spring Wheat supplies may be running low...and yet the market thinks that CBOT will strengthen against MGEX. While stranger things have happened, I like the odds on this.

Also jumped back into the calendar spread on May/July MGEX (long the front month), since the cash index at 30 cents premium to March indicates a very tight supply situation.

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