Now Clinging by the Fingernails

Only a very late sell-off in corn helped me keep my composure and hold my wheat and oats vs short corn. If corn goes to a premium to wheat in the cash market, I guess I will look to exit. Sure there is a low stocks-to-use in corn, but that's been known for months now. Also, if the market for May corn is so tight why is the May calendar spread trading at 7 cents under July today when 10 days ago it was only 2 cents under July? The 7 cents May/July in corn does not look significantly tighter than the 7.5 cents for May/July oats.

The USDA finding 25 million bushels of HRS wheat did not help my long MGEX vs CBOT position at all: the July spread dropped from around $1.20 to maybe $1.12 at the close. Also the additional inventory news pushed the May/July contango to 8 cents from 6.5 cents. Very sad for me, but it does point out the importance of controlling risk. I don't think I've ever been as bullish on MGEX wheat as I was yesterday. Huge premiums for HRS in the cash market, MGEX futures had pulled back to less frothy levels... then the USDA finds 25 million bushels ...