DISCLAIMER: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT I COULD BE WRONG.

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Friday, May 28, 2010

Puzzling over the Cash Basis Levels

I've been aware of the very weak Hard Winter Wheat cash price for a while. As people often do, I was content to ignore it--in part because it didn't fit my already-in-progress trading strategy. I'm still not sure how to interpret it.
The cash basis for Soft Winter Wheat was very weak for years (which is why the CBOT instituted the VSR regime), and it was primarily a signal that the futures had become unhinged from the cash market. In other words, the weak basis was the result of a futures market that was able to climb ever higher--the weak basis was not a signal to sell the related futures.
Now we have a situation where the KC wheat contract is the cheapest place to carry wheat inventory. The KC calendar spreads are at full carry for as far out as they are listed-several crop cycles. Is KC going to experience the same weak cash basis as the CBOT before VSR? The cash basis for Soft Winter Wheat is now about 57 cents under July CBOT, while cash Hard Winter Wheat is about $1.08 under July KC.
I don't think that's exactly what's going on. But this KC basis is creating some interesting situations. For example, the big discount for cash wheat means that cash Hard Winter Wheat is already down to 1.15X cash corn. There shouldn't be a whole lot of downside from there. The MGE has contracts for cash indexes on all the major wheat markets and corn and beans, but the only contract that trades is the index on Soft Winter Wheat (due to last year's big basis swings).
I'm continuing to investigate...

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