Commercial Buying Here?

Most observers looking at wheat are commenting along the lines of "spec short-covering supports wheat..."--much as I have been. It was a surprise to see in the CFTC COT reportthat it was commercial buying, at least through last Tuesday, supporting the market. In wheat (and corn), speculators were indeed shorting the grains as the USD rose--but commercial interests were covering, reducing their shorts. Hmmm, worth thinking about.
Wheat does continue to slide vs corn; the ratio is down to 1.26:1. Usually substitution is considered economic around 1.15-1.10:1, but some of the corn inventory is very poor and there could be support a little before those levels.

While I am trying to stay open-minded to supporting factors to the CBOT wheat market, we added to our long July MGE/short CBOT position today. CBOT calendar spreads steepened back close to the widest levels yet and I believe that may be a harbinger of new highs on the MGE/CBOT spread.