Fresh Look at the Market

It actually looks a lot like the old market. So we'll start to put on the same sort of trades. Today we bought a little bit of July Minneapolis vs CBOT. We shifted the old Minneapolis vs CBOT to MGE vs KC. Warily, we are looking to get back in. Nothing new enticing in the calendar spreads.
We may get a further steepening of contango on the CBOT at the very front end over the next few weeks: non-commercial players no longer offset much of the index rolls. So the indexers will have to roll against the hard-ball playing commercial longs. Also, the VSR rules change included new limits on financial carries--carrying without "load out"--which may limit the appetite and ability for a relatively small number of commercials to accommodate the index rolls.