Really, I don't do very much outright speculation and I am not going long here. In fact, I did get the chance to buy Dec Oats at 62.5% of Corn. I do this with very low leverage because I plan to stay in long Oats/short Corn unless Oats drop to below 55% of Corn. So that means I have to be prepared to lose 40 cents/bushel if corn really spikes up. I am also short Corn against long Dec Ethanol.
With Dec CBOT wheat below 1.2X corn, we are getting into an area where corn is going to have to lift the entire grain market to move higher--and that's in addition to corn already carrying the weight of large commodity index longs and large trend-follower longs. That's a lot of weight to carry.
The wheat futures were uninspiring by comparison. Dec MGEX approached 60 cents premium to CBOT which was a strong showing in an up market. In a move I may regret, I let go of the long Dec11 MGEX vs CBOT at around even. That Dec11 spread has been in a 5 cent range for a month, so hopefully, I'll get a chance to get back in with MGEX at a discount.
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Keep up with the good posts, I check them every afternoon!
ReplyDeleteDo know the a good website where you can look at charts of both inter- and intra-commodity spreads?
I use Thinkorswim for my quotes (free streaming data!) but they don't offer MW so it limits my options....
The MGEX site, mgex.com, has a Quotes and Charts feature listed under "market information" along the top of the page. It lets you look at spreads between Minneapolis, KC and Chicago wheat contracts with data going back 20 years or so. Also, it includes DTN's cash market data for the underlying physicals for the 3 futures. I believe the futures data is all 10-20 minutes delayed, but it's great for historical depth.
ReplyDeleteI don't know anyplace that offers free, live Minneapolis data ...