Reviewing Some Bad Calls....

Before the huge run up in wheat prices this Summer, I used to point out that wheat was cheap at below 1.3X corn, but what with the big wheat inventories it would likely get cheaper. Of course wheat sky-rocketed to about 2X corn, but funny enough, it is all the way back down to 1.25X corn. Interesting. Cattle don't usually get to eat bagels...

Another swing and a miss related to this corn rally is my call on buying ethanol vs selling corn. Even though the ethanol market remains very tight, continuing to trade in backwardation in the nearby months, ethanol was not at all able to keep pace with corn today. While I still like the trade, I have scaled back my position size (at a loss) due to the higher volatility.

And on a final note, I also reduced my position on long Dec MGEX vs CBOT--again, I like the position, but want a smaller size due to the higher volatility in grains.