DISCLAIMER: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT I COULD BE WRONG.

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Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Oats Revisited

After the big move up in June due to Canadian weather, Oats have fallen off the radar. The low plantings numbers from Canada caused the trend-following shorts to cover oats well before the Russian drought forced shorts out of every other grain. So for the past several months, Oats have been sliding down in relative value versus Corn. I am an infrequent visitor to Oats and just look to buy them at around 50% of Corn. Since the oat market may be a bit tighter than usual, and since the trend-followers have loaded up on Corn, I've decided to stretch a bit and buy Dec Oats/short Corn today with Oats at 63% of the Corn price. I should do even dollar amounts on each side, but with the small amounts I am executing, I had to buy a little more oats than I shorted in corn.

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