DISCLAIMER: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT I COULD BE WRONG.

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Friday, August 27, 2010

Whither Dec/March Calendar Spreads?

Is there any way that Dec/March won't be at a full carry on all the exchanges eventually?

While the MGEX Sep/Dec tightened a dime over the course of August, to less than 5 cents/bushel--and 10 cents less than the cost of carry, KC and CBOT spent much of the month at around the cost of carry. And it was a big 31+ cent carry on the CBOT. And these carries were at a time when wheat has stayed at prices around 50% higher than 3 months ago.

What kind of bull market would it take to prevent the Dec/March (and further out spreads) from falling to the same full carry?

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