DISCLAIMER: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT I COULD BE WRONG.

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Friday, August 6, 2010

Was that the Top?

After pushing limit up overnight, wheat futures finished limit down. Calendar spreads that went to huge backwardation, like Dec10/July11 at over $1, also settled lower. The intermarket spreads were a bit harder to judge; after Dec MGE traded at over 35 cents discount to CBOT, it rallied to within 15 cents of the CBOT, but drooped again toward the close.
On the intermarket spread, in one sense there is less risk being long MGE at 20 cents under CBOT than at any kind of premium--the fundamentals are more favorable. But sadly, in this higher volatility environment, I will be taking smaller positions and not larger. So we dip a toe back in, long the Dec MGE vs CBOT.

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