DISCLAIMER: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT I COULD BE WRONG.

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Monday, September 20, 2010

Bullish News...Grains Struggle

After sharp gains overnight and a generally bullish commodities environment this morning, wheat trended down all day. It seemed like the price action one might expect with a lot of speculative long positions. Perhaps more ominous for bulls, the calendar spreads moved sharply toward contango as well. I'm not reading that much into one day's price action. Dec MGEX continued to strengthen against CBOT--I am rebuilding my long MGEX position there with a small extra gearing to MGEX to help guard against a bull market on the CBOT crushing the MGEX premium. Traded around corn calendar spreads ending up with a long March/short May position --also intended to protect me on a sharp move higher in grains with a limited downside if the outright market falls.

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