DISCLAIMER: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT I COULD BE WRONG.

Minneapolis Grain Exchange seats are cheap. Everyone should buy one...and then buy one for a friend.

Friday, April 1, 2011

Some Thoughts on the Wheat Calendar Spreads

A few months ago the KCBT finalized changes in their wheat contract that will take effect with the September contract. As I look at the contract specs, I think full carry for July/Sep is about 15.7 cents using 3% for financing. Previously, I had thought the carry was 18 cents plus financing, but reading the KCBT rules, it seems the higher storage rate does not take effect til September 1.

There is another change to the rules that takes effect in September and that is a tighter restriction on acceptable levels of vomitoxin and protein. So if you are running an elevator that is regular for delivery you need to dump all the wheat that will not comply with the new regulations before September 1.

If you are just a financial participant, the actual quality of the underlying wheat should not impact the value of the shipping certificate. But if you are looking at loading out wheat, you would apply some premium, perhaps substantial, to the September contract over May or July due to quality.

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