DISCLAIMER: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT I COULD BE WRONG.

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Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Ethanol Trading Versus Corn

Ethanol continued higher against corn today. The Nov/Dec stayed close to 9 cents premium Nov and Dec traded at a similar premium to Jan. That's pretty tight: 7.5% premium to get ethanol 60 days earlier.

Looking out on the futures curves, that leaves March ethanol at very cheap levels against March corn (which is around 75% of full carry against Dec10). Maybe it should be cheap, but it looks like there is not enough refining margin going forward to inspire producers to bring much new capacity into operation...so how will the current ethanol tightness be alleviated?

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