The wheat futures spent the day within about a nickel of unchenged for most of the day and intermarket and calendar spreads only shifted a penny or two.
So I begin to creep back into my usual long MGEX/ Short CBOT stance.
As wheat trades toward the low end of the range since the summer Russian drought, and corn is at the lowest levels since we found out yields would be lower than expected, I am looking for longer term bull market trades. Ideally that would be putting on a calendar spread around full carry just before the next harvest. I don't see that, but KC May10/July10 with a 6 cent discount for May (about 50% of full carry) doesn't look too bad as a bull market option. While wheat inventories aren't as tight as corn, you would have to pay over 20 cents premium for Sep10 corn over Dec10. If the grain markets soften, there is only a 6 cent downside on the wheat spread, but about 35-40 cents at risk on the corn trade.
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