While I stopped trading early yesterday, I did narrow my focus a bit. I switched the long July MGEX/ short CBOT position I had to additional long MGEX/ short KC. So I have just that one intermarket spread and a long July/ short Sep MGEX calendar spread.
Deliverable stocks at Duluth dropped another 3MM bushels, so that's nearly half the deliverable stocks gone in about 5 weeks; there are only about 14MM bushels left and 606 May contracts still open after the last day of trading. It appears to me that there is a chance that supplies will get very tight on MGEX wheat.
As of mid-day today, we see July MGEX up 3 cents against Sep and 5-7 cents stronger against KC, so this trading thesis is being supported by the price action so far.
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