Small Trades for the Longer Term

Today I put on a few positions that I think will work out over weeks or months rather than days:
Long March Oats, short Corn.
Long March Wheat, short Corn.
Long March MGEX Wheat, short KC Wheat.

In the first two cases, we are above rock-bottom levels where feedlots would substitute for corn, but not by more than maybe 10%. Certainly there is at least twice that room on the upside.

In the second case, we see a similar set-up; there may be 15-25 cents of downside, but MGEX could easily be 50-70 cents over KC instead of the current 14-15.

The risk to all the above trades is a rampant bull market that attracts more speculation to corn and KC wheat than the less liquid oats and MGEX markets. A good offset to that risk would be to scoop up some calendar spreads at close to full carry, so I'll be on the lookout for that going forward.