Again today, as wheat prices declined modestly (15 cents) calendar spreadsmoved away from backwardation and hard wheat futures rose to a premium to CBOT, at least in the nearby futures.
While I speculated last Friday that the top may have been put in for this rally, I was very surprised to see the small addition to non-commercial longs in the CFTC COT report that came out after the close. This is worth watching, as is the cash/futures basis, in order to spot signs of commercial demand. Surely, the drought in Russia is very serious; the question was always about how much impact it would have on inventories.
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