Feckless Trading

feckless:1. Lacking purpose or vitality; feeble or ineffective.

Back into KC at slightly higher levels. Only keeping a tiny long MGEX positions. My view on the outright wheat price has clouded my spread judgment. As it has become clearer that US wheat exports are struggling at current prices (leading to higher inventories), I have become nervous about being long MGEX or KC vs CBOT as I fear the premiums will shrink as the wheat price declines.

This is an irrational fear. First of all, I don't know which way wheat prices will move, but I should be wary of being bearish when non-commercial postitions are already quite short. Second, there isn't such a correlation between the outright price and the spread premiums that I should worry too much about it.

Further, if inventories are high and contangos go to the exchange limits for cost-of-carry, then long anything and short CBOT will have a big edge in financing.