DISCLAIMER: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT I COULD BE WRONG.

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Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Slow Growth in MGEX Deliverable Stocks

The weekly report on deliverable inventories continues to show slow growth in the wake of a late harvest. http://www.mgex.com/grain_historical.html

This should support the current premiums for MGEX wheat over CBOT, but leaves me puzzled about MGEX calendar spreads. If traders are paying 8-9 cents premium for Dec over March, where is the Spring going to come from that will drive May12 down to even with July12? In other words, if the market is so tight in Dec11, why won't it be tight in May12?

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