DISCLAIMER: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT I COULD BE WRONG.

Minneapolis Grain Exchange seats are cheap. Everyone should buy one...and then buy one for a friend.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

KCBT Changing Wheat Contract Specs Starting September 2011

In a move that is intended to narrow the cash/futures basis, the KCBT will raise the "storage" rate for shipping certificates beginning next September. Additionally, they added a protein content requirement and lowered allowable vomitoxin levels.

I don't think these measures are certain to succeed. Raising the storage rate to 9 cents/month from July through December will help (up to 6 cents Jan-June), but it's not enough to change the current dynamic. If grains continue to rally, and I think commodities generally will, there will be increased interest from financial participants that will tend to push the futures higher than the cash markets.

To solve the convergence problem, the exchanges need to have huge penalties for deferring delivery (the CBOT is getting there) or adopt the MGEX contracts for settlement to a cash index. When you can't force anyone to take delivery and don't penalize them for deferral, there will be a strong tendency to very wide cash/futures basis.

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