While the newly sprouted Wheat bulls continue to talk up the decline in supply, there is nobody currently willing to pay a premium to control supply. This is not the cocoa market. You can be bullish and you may be right, but you have to pay top dollar to carry that position now.
Since there is plenty of wheat to go around through the next harvest, the bullish view really assumes not only a badly damaged harvest this year, but also a poor harvest next year. However, higher prices now (and big contangos forward) will stimulate higher plantings. It may be that the growing season next year will be poor, but it looks like the bullish position still requires a few things falling onto place.
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