Dang Markets Don't Do What They Should

All the wheat futures closed within a penny of unchanged and very little changed relative to each other. Given that the recent bearish market driver--lack of US export volumes--should have been exacerbated by the sharply stronger USD, this is a little surprising. While the wheat futures displayed no signs of particular strength, trading in the plus column for less than 10 minutes, the lack of follow-through to the downside is worrying for those of us short the CBOT vs MGE and KC.

In the CBOT calendar spreads, interest came back to the distant futures with fresh orders to sell Dec10/ buy Dec11. It's pretty hard to step in front of these orders in a meaningful way since the volume in Dec11 is less than 100 lots these days, but we try to do our part. We added 5 lots to our position and scalped a 2 lot; our 9 lots puts us in at about 10% of today's Dec11 volume.